Tuesday, September 27, 2016

College Football - Week 5

Bad week (picking) good week on results.

5-4(4-5 ATS) on SEC (30-13 : 9-10) and 11-5(7-8-1 ATS) on the Top 25 (27-8 : 18-14-3)


#11 Tennessee at #25 Georgia: UT coming off the big comeback win over Florida (breaking an 11 year losing streak in the process) looks like the team they were supposed to be. Georgia lost big to Ole Miss but has been shaky all year. UT keeps it rolling, 42-21

Alcorn State at #20 Arkansas: The Razorbacks will be looking to fix their run defense, this is a good game to do it. Ark 55 - Alcorn 10

#23 Florida at Vanderbilt: The gators will be looking to rebound in a big way against a team that seems to be trying to just stay alive. This game is usually close, this time it won't be. Florida is pissed. UF 34 - Vandy 3

Louisiana Monroe at Auburn: Big win last week keeps Gus alive. Should be easy this week, it won't be just because Auburn doesn't do easy. AU 30 - ULM 28

#9 Texas A&M at South Carolina: SC lost to Kentucky ... A&M may be looking ahead to UT but it won't matter. They run very well, SC won't stop that run. A&M 40 SC 20

Kentucky at #1 Alabama: heh heh heh Bama 45 - UK 14

Memphis at #16 Ole Miss: Revenge game?  Memphis embarrassed the Rebels last year; no Lynch or Fuentes this year and it's in the Grove. Miss 48 Mem 34

Missouri at LSU: Will the Tigers rally after losing their coach? Can Mizzou keep that offensive juggernaut going? No and no, but it will be enough Fournette to win. LSU 20 Mizz 18

Top 25:

#2   Ohio State hosts Rutgers: Buckeyes run it up 55-14
#3   Louisville at #5 Clemson: Louisville is this year's darling (after putting 60+ on FSU who wouldn't be) and Clemson has 'struggled'. The ACC rights itself this week and Clemson's D asserts itself. Lamar isn't the top contender for the Heisman after this game. Tigers 38 Louis 31
#4   Michigan hosts #8 Wisconsin: Are the Badgers real? Is Michigan? Maybe we'll find out. The maize and blue stop their 40+ point a game streak but the Badgers take over as the B10 favorite. Wisconsin 24 - Mich 22
#6   Houston hosts Uconn: 60-20
#7   Stanford at #10 Washington: The Tree is the class of the Pac-12, Huskies are the up-and-comers. Washington pulls it off; UW 21-20 over Stanford
#12 Florida State at North Carolina: NC needs a signature win; The noles won't give it; FSU 38 - 20 NC
#13 Baylor at Iowa State: Baylor runs away; 40-20
#14 Miami at Georgia Tech: Hurricanes are untested, GT is under performing; Canes 21-20
#15 Nebraska hosts Illinois: Huskers in a walk 31-14
#17 Michigan State at Indiana: Sparty is pissed, Indiana sucks; 42-21 MSU
#18 Utah at California: Utah is skimming by, Cal scores in droves; Utah plays defense, Utes 28-27
#19 San Diego State at South Alabama: USA only wins if the State players stay on the beach, SDSU 43-19
#21 TCU hosts Oklahoma: Sooners were the pick to win the Big 12; they lost to Houston and Ohio State (two highly ranked teams) and people still think they are good; they aren't. TCU 44-22 OK
#22 Texas at Oklahoma State: Texas sucks, Oklahoma State does too. OK upset 28-27
#24 Boise State hosts Utah State: Boise is better than their entire conference combined, however, conference play is weird. Utah State pulls the major upset; 21-20

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

College Football - Week 4

Great games this week means hard picks.

Currently 25-9(5-5 ATS) in the SEC and 16-3(11-6-2 ATS) top 25:

#1 Alabama big over Kent State (55-3)

#17 Arkansas at #10 Texas A&M: Which team will discover its offense first? Both are winning with defense and the winner has the inside track to challenging Bama for the West. Expect a hard fought game but I think Arkansas ability to run will make the difference. Ark 24-21

#12 Georgia at #23 Mississippi: Ole Miss led by 21+ against FSU and Alabama, both losses (first time in over 10 years a team did that) and seem not to want to play in the second half. Last week they showed life and could have easily won that game with a couple of different calls. Georgia needed a 4th down touchdown to beat Missouri. Last year that would be damning, but not so sure this year as Missouri has improved. It's the 2 point win versus Nichols (?!?) and THEN needing the 4th down play versus Mizzou that worries you. I think the Rebels finally do something in the 2nd half and win this one going away. Miss 34 - Geo 25

#19 Florida at #14 Tennessee: This year or none. Florida has beat UT 11 straight (quite a few they shouldn't have [ie. last year]) and looks to keep it alive. UT was picked by some to make it to the playoff this year but has problems with focus. They (UT) will be without a couple of stand outs in the defense but get a much needed boost on the o-line. Florida lost their starting QB and will have to go with a transfer out of Purdue. Butch Jones needs this more than anyone. UT finally breaks through; 28-20

#18 LSU at Auburn: The hot-seat game. Which ever coach loses might not be coaching at the end of the year. Auburn has looked awful while playing multiple quarterbacks, LSU has a run game and needs a quarterback. Both defenses look good and usually that would mean to go with the home team. This time, however, I think Fournette runs through the Auburn defense to 150+ yards and Gus gets on the hot(ter) seat. LSU 30 - Auburn 14

Mississippi State travels to UMass :  Florida beat them 35-7; State will beat them by more; MSU 48 - 10

Delaware State at Missouri: Sleeper game; Mizzou 39 - 15

Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky: Vandy has to win this to even think about the post season; they won't. WKU 28 Vandy 13

South Carolina at Kentucky: A must win game for Kentucky (see Vanderbilt). Which SC team shows up? Who knows??  I think Kentucky is just that bad; SC 35 KY 31

Top 25

#3   Louisville at Marshall: 56-30 UL
#4   Michigan hosts Penn State: 42 - 24 UM
#5   Clemson at Georgia Tech: upset alert -- 28-27 Clemson
#6   Houston at Texas State: 44-20 UH
#7   Stanford at UCLA: 28-24 Stanford
#8   Michigan State hosts #11 Wisconsin: 29-14 Sparty
#9   Washington at Arizona: 28-25 UW
#13 Florida Sate at South Florida: upset alert -- 35-34 South Florida
#16 Baylor hosts Oklahoma State: upset alert -- 42-35 OK State
#20 Nebraska at Northwestern: 28-21 Neb
#24 Utah hosts USC: 30-20 Utes

Sunday, September 18, 2016

College Football Results

Rough week for me in the SEC, went 6-3 with losers on the Ole Miss-Bama game (great game), South Carolina pulling out a win over East and Vandy not showing up after the first quarter against Georgia Tech.

(ATS picks  SEC: 5-5 [based on my score pick versus the actual line] Top 25: 11-6-2)
From 19-6 to 25-9 in the SEC.

Much better in the Top 25 picks (some overlap as the SEC is well represent in the T25).

I picked the Louisville win over FSU, correctly thought that Texas and Notre Dame were both over rated based on their double overtime game against each other and had the Buckeyes beating up on Stoops and the Sooners.  Big miss on the Miami versus App State game, but who knew Miami would gel?

Overall in the Top 25 I was 16 and 3, so a very good week on the picks.

One note: Talking to Colbie Friday about the Iowa and North Dakota State game (ND is a FCS school that makes a habit of beating FBS teams); I had the game as Iowa winning 21-20 on a missed field goal at the end by the Bison. It went exactly as I called, except the kick was good (23-21 ND) so missed it by that much :)

Friday, September 16, 2016

College Football - Week 3

Time for college football picks (will be starting fresh with Top 25 picks and going to week 3 of the SEC, my first 2 weeks didn't get published, so you'll have to just trust me;))

SEC first: [19-6 overall so far]

#15 Tennessee hosts Ohio; UT looked good in the 2nd half last week against an overmatched Virginia Tech squad and it's the defense that's doing the deed. Ohio averages 500 or so yards on offense so they can move the ball and score. Look for that total to be cut in half; UT 49 - Ohio 21

Vanderbilt is at Georgia Tech: Vandy got off the snide last week with an impressive (for them) run over Middle Tennessee. GT is looking rather average for a triple-option offense and that could be the difference. Vandy runs and GT doesn't: Vandy 17 - GT 13

#1 Alabama at #19 Ole Miss: Rebs have won 2 in a row against Bama and are at home with a prolific offense and 'stout' defense. Alabama is rolling but has a freshman QB taking his first start on the road. Unless the Crimson Tide gets up by a couple scores in the 1st half, Mississippi can win this. And they will, dethroning the #1 team and 'shocking' the football landscape. Miss 24 - Ala 23

East Carolina travels to South Carolina: SC came back to beat Vandy then laid an egg against Mississippi State last week; EC brings it.  EC 28 - SC 24

New Mexico St at Kentucky: Ky was supposed to turn the corner this year; game 1 they were up 25 and cruising ... loss. Game 2 (against Florida) they lost 45-7 in a game that wasn't as close as the score (heh and for the 30th straight time). This week they look to pick on the little people and get a W. KY 44 - NMSU 28

Miss St at #20 LSU: Mississippi State looked lost against South Alabama(?!?) and looked found against a bad South Carolina squad. LSU looked normal (no qb) against a good Wisconsin team (in Green Bay) and then found a QB in a ho-hum win over Jacksonville State. If Fournette is healthy (and reports are he is) then this game will be close till the 4th. Too much #7 at the end. LSU 35 - MSU 21

 North Texas at #23 Florida: warm-up game. Florida found it last week, rolls this. Fla 52 - NT 10 Texas State at #24 Arkansas: warm-up game. Ark upset TCU now feasts on the little kids. Ark 50 - TSU 3

 #16 Georgia at Missouri; both offense are looking better (not good) and Georgia needed help to outlast Nichols (?!?) last week. This would be the perfect time for Mizzou to make a comeback. But they won't.  UGA 20 - Mizzou 19

Top 25 (non-SEC): Take the Houston win but didn't realize it was on last night so no pick

#2 Florida State at #10 Louisville: UL 35 - FSU 29
#3 Ohio State at #14 Oklahoma: OSU 28 - OK 14
Colorado at #4 Michigan: UM 32 - CU 10
S Carolina St at #5 Clemson: zzz Clem 66 - SC State 10
USC at #7 Stanford: Trees 21 - Condoms 14
Portland State at #8 Washington - zzz UW 50 - Port 24
Georgia State at #9 Wisconson - zzz Sconsin 44 - GSU 16
#11 Texas at California: Cal 38 - Tex 35
#12 Michigan State at #18 Notre Dame: Sparty 21 - Dome 20
North Dakota St at #13 Iowa: Iowa 21 - NDst 20
#21 Baylor at Rice: Sex Assault U 50 - minutes 14
#22 Oregon at Nebraska: Last Century 28 - Last Decade 21  
#25 Miami at(?) App State: UPSET App State 23 - Miami 20


 Recently played a few games on Caldera (warzone) and then... Lots of luck in this one, but satisfying