Wednesday, September 21, 2016

College Football - Week 4

Great games this week means hard picks.

Currently 25-9(5-5 ATS) in the SEC and 16-3(11-6-2 ATS) top 25:

#1 Alabama big over Kent State (55-3)

#17 Arkansas at #10 Texas A&M: Which team will discover its offense first? Both are winning with defense and the winner has the inside track to challenging Bama for the West. Expect a hard fought game but I think Arkansas ability to run will make the difference. Ark 24-21

#12 Georgia at #23 Mississippi: Ole Miss led by 21+ against FSU and Alabama, both losses (first time in over 10 years a team did that) and seem not to want to play in the second half. Last week they showed life and could have easily won that game with a couple of different calls. Georgia needed a 4th down touchdown to beat Missouri. Last year that would be damning, but not so sure this year as Missouri has improved. It's the 2 point win versus Nichols (?!?) and THEN needing the 4th down play versus Mizzou that worries you. I think the Rebels finally do something in the 2nd half and win this one going away. Miss 34 - Geo 25

#19 Florida at #14 Tennessee: This year or none. Florida has beat UT 11 straight (quite a few they shouldn't have [ie. last year]) and looks to keep it alive. UT was picked by some to make it to the playoff this year but has problems with focus. They (UT) will be without a couple of stand outs in the defense but get a much needed boost on the o-line. Florida lost their starting QB and will have to go with a transfer out of Purdue. Butch Jones needs this more than anyone. UT finally breaks through; 28-20

#18 LSU at Auburn: The hot-seat game. Which ever coach loses might not be coaching at the end of the year. Auburn has looked awful while playing multiple quarterbacks, LSU has a run game and needs a quarterback. Both defenses look good and usually that would mean to go with the home team. This time, however, I think Fournette runs through the Auburn defense to 150+ yards and Gus gets on the hot(ter) seat. LSU 30 - Auburn 14

Mississippi State travels to UMass :  Florida beat them 35-7; State will beat them by more; MSU 48 - 10

Delaware State at Missouri: Sleeper game; Mizzou 39 - 15

Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky: Vandy has to win this to even think about the post season; they won't. WKU 28 Vandy 13

South Carolina at Kentucky: A must win game for Kentucky (see Vanderbilt). Which SC team shows up? Who knows??  I think Kentucky is just that bad; SC 35 KY 31

Top 25

#3   Louisville at Marshall: 56-30 UL
#4   Michigan hosts Penn State: 42 - 24 UM
#5   Clemson at Georgia Tech: upset alert -- 28-27 Clemson
#6   Houston at Texas State: 44-20 UH
#7   Stanford at UCLA: 28-24 Stanford
#8   Michigan State hosts #11 Wisconsin: 29-14 Sparty
#9   Washington at Arizona: 28-25 UW
#13 Florida Sate at South Florida: upset alert -- 35-34 South Florida
#16 Baylor hosts Oklahoma State: upset alert -- 42-35 OK State
#20 Nebraska at Northwestern: 28-21 Neb
#24 Utah hosts USC: 30-20 Utes

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 Recently played a few games on Caldera (warzone) and then... Lots of luck in this one, but satisfying