Thursday, October 27, 2016

College Football - Week 9

My ATS scores are awful, but I have not actually been picking ATS. What I have been doing is picking a score and then later putting the spread on it and basing my ATS on the score I selected.

Starting this week (and I missed the VT game natch) I will be picking winner straight up (↑)and ATS (↔) and not picking a score.

While I'll be tracking my overall numbers on w-l I will be starting the ↔ numbers over. The favorite is in bold (so as to see which one I picked ↔)

 Last week a perfect week in the SEC 7-0(53-16) as the picks were easy (not ↔ though) and Top 25 11-6(71-33)


#18 Tennessee at South Carolina: ↑ UT  ↔ (-13.5)
Kentucky at Missouri: ↑ KY ↔ (+4.5)
#14 Florida at Georgia: ↑ UGA ↔ (+7.5)
Samford at Mississippi State: ↑ MSU ↔ MSU (push)
#15 Auburn at Ole Miss: ↑ Auburn ↔ (-4.5)
New Mexico State at #9 Texas A&M: ↑ A&M ↔ (+43,5)

Top 25:

#22 Navy at South Florida: ↑ Navy ↔ (+7.5)
#10 West Virginia at Oklahoma State: ↑ WV ↔ (-3.5)
#2   Michigan at Michigan State: ↑ Mich ↔ (+23.5)
#24 Penn State at Purdue: ↑ Penn State ↔ (-11.5)
#5   Louisville at Virginia: ↑ Cardinals ↔ (+31.5)
#6   Ohio State hosts Northwestern: ↑ OSU ↔ (+27)
#4   Washington at #17 Utah: ↑ Utah ↔ (+10)
#8   Baylor at Texas: ↑ Baylor ↔ (-3.5)
#13 Boise State at Wyoming: ↑ BSU ↔ (-13.5)
#16 Oklahoma hosts Kansas: ↑ OK ↔ (+40)
#7   Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin: ↑ Nebraska ↔ (+7.5)
#3   Clemson at #12 Florida State: ↑ FSU ↔ (+4.5)

Thursday, October 20, 2016

College Football - Week 8

Hard week of picks (and very hard UT game to watch natch)... 4-2(3-3 ATS) in the SEC for a 46-16(15-17 / year doesn't match because no ATS picks 1st 2 weeks) season record and 10-7(10-7 ATS) in the Top 25 for a season total of 60-27(43-41-3).

Decent week for picks this week and Tennessee is off so hopefully we can get healthy for the finish run.


#1 Alabama hosts #6 Texas A&M(+18.5): Questions all week on whether the Aggies can run on Bama. I think the most important thing will be whether Knight can throw and not have turnovers. It's at Bama and I don't think A&M is quite ready for the big time. Ala 34-20

#17 Arkansas(+10) travels to #21 Auburn: Auburn has found a team, Arkansas is playing very well. This should be a great game, home field should make the difference in this one. AU 24-21

#23 Mississippi at #25 LSU(-6.5): No Fournette seems to be no problem for this offense now. They have (somewhat) of a passing game and the o-line is killing it blocking for whomever is running the ball. Ole Miss can't seem to stop people but their offense is on fire also. LSU's defense will make the difference. Tigers 20-13

UMass(+20.5) at South Carolina: Tune-up game before SC plays Tennessee: SC 34-21

Middle Tennessee(+7) at Missouri: Missouri in a normal year would win this going away; they won't this year though. Middle by 10 at 24-14

Tennessee State(+24.5) at Vanderbilt: Vandy wins another; 44-20

Mississippi State at Kentucky(+3): Kent needs this to get closer to a bowl, MSU needs this to stop the season from spiraling out of control. Wildcats get it done at home: 24-22

Top 25:

#2   Ohio State(-19.5) at Penn State: Buckeyes 34-14
#3   Michigan(-39) hosts Illinois: Wolverines by 40  (49-9)
#5   Washington(-36.5) hosts Oregon State: Huskies 48-10
#7   Louisville hosts NC State(+19): State should have beaten Clemson; 'Ville 24-21
#8   Nebraska hosts Purdue(+24): Huskers 32-20
#10 Wisconsin at Iowa(+3.5): Hawkeyes upset 21-20
#11 Houston at SMU(+21): Houston rolls 44-35
#12 West Virginia hosts TCU(+6.5): I still have no faith in WV .. TCU 28-20
#14 Boise State(-7.5) hosts BYU: BYU had problems with Miss State; Boise 35-21
#16 Oklahoma at Texas Tech(+13.5): Tech Air-raid against Stoops D; TTU upset 38-35
#19 Utah(-7) at UCLA: No Rosen, no chance; Utes 28-10
#20 Western Michigan(-23.5) hosts Eastern Michigan: Directional U! West 48-20
#22 North Carolina at Virginia(+9.5): NC big (unless there's another hurricane) 38-31
#24 Navy hosts Memphis(-2.5): Magical run ends for Navy: Memphis 40-20

Thursday, October 13, 2016

College Football - Week 7

Decent picks last week; thought I would do much worse so a pleasant surprise. The one I wanted I missed though (double ot sucks).

4-1(3-2 ATS) (with LSU-Florida cancelled) in the SEC for 42-14(12-14) on the year. 9-5(6-8 ATS) top 25 (argh) for a 50-20(33-34-3) season so far.


#1 Alabama travels to #9 UT: Tennessee's habit of slow starting and turnovers finally caught up to them, they played a hell of a game considering. With 7 turnovers, they were still able to get to OT against a good A&M squad.  Alabama cruised like every week (except Ole Miss) so far. UT will be able to move the ball on Bama, but I'm not sure they've fixed the fumble problems and they still have 7 people injured. Bama 34-31 in a very close game (as they all seem to be)

Mississippi State travels to BYU: Friday night game for the bulldogs as they look to get back on track toward a bowl game. BYU is playing inspired ball at the moment and is at home. BYU 27-19

Vanderbilt at Georgia: Vandy needs this win to get closer to a bowl; UGA needs this to stay in the hunt for a good bowl. Georgia at home will win even with Vandy's defense harassing the dogs all night. UGA 21-14

Missouri at #18 Florida: Gators have major problems on offense and Mizzou 'was' one of the best offenses in the SEC. LSU exposed them and Florida will finish them. UF 35-13

#12 Ole Miss at #22 Arkansas: Razorbacks smarting after getting beat up by Bama; they had a great offensive game if they didn't turn it over, but they did. Ole Miss looks to keep rolling after getting back in the rankings. A shootout; Miss handles the ending 44-41

Southern Mississippi at LSU: Southern upset Vandy to start the season, enough said. LSU (refound offense) 35-20

Top 25:

#2   Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin: UW should have beat Michigan; buckeyes are rolling over everyone. Badgers get it done on defense. Wisc 17-14
#3   Clemson hosts NC State; Wolfpack coming off the big win over Notre Dame, Clemson rolling toward the playoffs. Clemson big 44-30
#7   Louisville hosts Duke: don't sleep on the blue devils, they seem to play up or down to the competition. They will play great this week, but too much Lamar, UL 38-35
#10 Nebraska travels to Indiana; Nebraska is almost relevant again; they'll get over this hump and remain undefeated: Huskers 21-20
#11 Baylor hosts Kansas; Sleeper city, Baylor 50-28
#13 Houston hosts Tulsa: Houston's path to the playoff is dead and quite possibly their path to a NY6 bowl. Tulsa can run up and down, shootout but Houston rights the ship at home: UH 44-39
#14 Florida State hosts Wake Forest: Seminoles got a big win against Miami last week, keep it rolling this week: FSU 35-20
#15 Boise State hosts Colorado State: Chance for a NY6 bowl in Boise can win out. Don't overlook CSU for an upset: Boise close 28-27
#16 Miami hosts North Carolina: Miami lost a heartbreaker and NC got crushed in the rain (they pass well, not run).  One of them has to win; the U holds NC to under 400 passing; UM 31-28
#17 Virginia Tech at Syracuse: Syracuse plays no defense, VTech has looked awesome since losing the Battle of Bristol to UT; VT 38-10
#19 Oklahoma hosts Kansas State: Everyone is saying that no one wants to play Oklahoma right now, I think State would relish it: KState in the upset 24-22
#20 West Virginia at Texas Tech: WVU is undefeated and plays some defense; Tech plays no defense but is lights out on offense; I think turnovers will be the difference as the Big 12 loses another playoff contender. TT 52-44
#21 Utah at Oregon State: Should be a good game, but Utah's defense looks to be back on track. Utes 20-13
#24 Western Michigan at Akron; WMU hoping for that NY6 bowl by being the highest ranked 'Group of 5' team in the final rankings. Akron is playing inspired and this is a conference game. Zips in the upset; Akron 28-21
#25 Navy game was postponed

Thursday, October 6, 2016

College Football - Week 6

Sec was a good week; UT pulled off a hail mary win over Georgia (after the bulldogs had their own miracle that was a win but wasn't) and I went 8-0(2-6 ATS) on my picks.

Top 25 wasn't as good, but still decent at 14-7(9-12 ATS).  Year-to-date SEC 38-13(11-16) and 41-15(27-26-3) T25.

Might miss all the picks this week; they're not easy.


#1 Alabama travels to #16 Arkansas:  Arkansas hasn't beat Bama since '06 but came very close last time at home (missed extra point). Alabama is on a roll and Arkansas has a decent pass game so I expect this will be close. I don't think the hogs can pull it off, but they'll make em sweat. Ala 24-21

#9 Tennessee is at #9 Texas A&M: First trip to Aggieland and only the 3rd time these teams have met. UT has a habit of slow starts and big finishes and A&M is more even keeled (but doesn't play their best in the 4th). Two of the best defensive lines and offensive lines squaring off. Both quarterbacks run better than they throw, but Dobbs (UT) is the better passer of the two. This game comes down to special teams and Tenn has an edge. UT 30 A&M 28

Auburn at Mississippi State: Au got the offense warmed up last week and look to keep rolling since the miracle win over LSU. State has been Jekyl and Hyde in their games all year. Auburn should roll, but it'll be tight. AU 24-19

Vanderbilt at Kentucky: Both teams underachieve and both teams need this win. It's at Kentucky so they have a slight edge, although Vandy's defense is much better. KY 10-9

Georgia at South Carolina: Georgia is much better but has historically had difficulties at SC. They get it done this week. UGA 31-14

LSU at Florida has been cancelled (Florida to win if they play it)

Top 25:

#2   Ohio State hosts Indiana: Ohio State rolls upset minded Indy: OSU 44-10
#3   Clemson at Boston College: This isn't last year's BC defense: Clem 40-6
#4   Michigan at Rutgers: OSU 58-0 over Rutgers last week... Mich 59-0
#5   Washington at Oregon: Ducks are hurting but own UW:  Oregon 42-40
#6   Houston at Navy: Cougars need this badly to stay in the hunt: Hou 35-29
#10 Miami hosts #23 Florida State: FSU is 0-2 in the ACC, Miami helps: FSU 21-19
#15 Stanford hosts Washington State: The Trees got killed last week: Stan 28-10
#17 North Carolina hosts #25 Virginia Tech: at VT I'd go with em: NC 24-23
#19 Boise State at New Mexico: Big blue keeps rocking, BSU 32-13
#20 Oklahoma vs Texas in the Red River Rivalry: UT beats ranked OK usually: OK 42-28
#21 Colorado at USC: Trojans are coming back: USC 25-20
#24 Utah hosts Arizona: Utes got beat by Cal's defense (?) but right the ship: Utah 28-27


 Recently played a few games on Caldera (warzone) and then... Lots of luck in this one, but satisfying