Reaction from an attack on Iran by Little Satan would be pure heck. Almost surrounded by enemies - all by amazing coincidense rocket rich fed and funded Iranian minions.
Hiz'B'Allah, HAMAS - even Syria could act out in rage if their mentors goodies were deceisively and destructively dissed to death. Oil prices could go through the roof, many nations would have their feelings terribly hurt in lieu of Little Satan's nigh global skirt flirt with such a pre emptive preventive attack.
Funny, though - no one mentions the results would be far worse if the Mullahs actually develop nuclear weaponry.
So like STRATFOR points out - leaking leaks about magical make believe air raids to kill scientists at work in wicked weaponized enrichment in such a trigger happy hood chock full of suicide cult rocketeers, gross body part collecting rocketeers and somewhat neutral neighbors seems awful risque.
Wildly provocative amid the easily provoked - like wearing a thong to Church.
Prob the best look at Target Sets (regime killing talk for vaporizing precious assets) and what it would take to knock them out - all the way out - is the SSP Working Paper by done by aviation sci spy guys Whitney Raas and Austin Long.
This exhaustive (yet fun and light to read dossier - perfect for the beach - and available in pdf) details naughty details.
To have a reasonable chance of success, both in the mission and in the
ultimate goal of rendering Iran’s nuclear program impotent, the target set must
be narrowed to concentrate on the critical nodes in Iran’s nuclear
The most difficult part of nuclear weapons development is obtaining the
nuclear material itself; thus, if the means of fissile material production can
be destroyed, the setback for Iran will be maximized.
Iran’s nuclear complex has three critical nodes: Esfahan, with its conversion facility, the Natanz enrichment facility, and the heavy water plant and future plutonium production reactors at Arak.
Blitzing bomb building builders of a nuclear persuasion at all three sites (all magnetically attracting multiple 'strike packages'
The total number of weapons needed to have reasonable confidence in
destroying all three target sets is thus 24 5000-lb weapons and 24 2000-lb
84 tons of intelligent guided precision weaponry!
Little Satan's Air Force currently has access to a domestic penetrating weapon, a 1000-lb class bomb known as the PB 500A1 The gov has also expressed interest in acquiring two heavier penetrating warheads from Great Satan.
In September 2004, Little Satan announced that it would acquire approximately 5000 PGMs from the U.S., including about 500 GBU-27s equipped with the 2000-lb class BLU-109 penetrating warheads. More recently, Israel has received approval to purchase one hundred GBU-28s equipped with the 5000-lb class BLU-113 warheads.
Weaponeering capabilities includes the happy fact that Little Satan maintains two elite especial forces units dedicated to assisting with air strikes, one dedicated to laser target designation (Sayeret Shaldag/Unit 5101) and one to real time bomb damage assessment (Unit 5707).
These units are extremely well-trained and could potentially be infiltrated to the target zone prior to attack. While it would be both difficult and risky to deploy these units inside Iran, they would be very useful in aiding the strike package, particularly in bad weather.
Like sending a hot text - the Strike Package has got to be reliably delivered.
Little Satan's heaviest dutiest strike aircraft is the world famous F 15 Eagle. Created way back in the last millennium, Eagle literally was the globally proof presence of Great Satan's 30 years in the future combat jet when she first flew in 1972 and came on line in the especially magical year of the Bicentenial!(1976 for the heathen).
Eagle fast became the weapon of choice among tiny tiny sexy democrazies under threat from intolerant neighbors. Little Satan, SoKo and Taiwan blinged and added Eagle to their airborne arsenals. Eagle's combat bona fides are down right lethal.
Like when Little Satan's Eagles literally blasted the Syrian Air Force out of the sky as F-15s shot down 40 Syrian combat jets (23 MiG-21 "Fishbeds" and 17 MiG-23 "Floggers" Russia built jets) and one French made Syrian SA.342L Gazelle helicopter way back in the PLO Lebanon War of 1982 without modesty, restraint or any casualties.
Originally created by MacDonnel Douglas - Boeing began upgrading an especially sexyful Little Satan mod 15I that Little Satan christened "Ra Am" or 'Thunder'
Ra Am can tote an amazing 11 tons of hurt in like a billion diff configurations and has a range of 1445Kilometers (2.25K miles for the unmetrical).
Little Satan deploys about 25 F15I thundering Ra Am's and has about 40 elderly Eagle variants without that kind of range or toting capabilities. Plus Little Satan super sexed up F16 'D' mod
F-16D aircraft which have a "dorsal spine" modification. This dorsal spine is a
fairing extending from the rear of the cockpit to the vertical stabilizer. It
apparently houses a significant anti-radar Wild Weasel system, self-protection
jamming, as well as other specialized electronics. These aircraft, if
retrofitted with CFTs, could accompany the deep strike aircraft and provide
significant suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) capability.
The F-16I is an F-16 Block 52/60 variant produced specifically for Israeli deep strike requirements. Like the F-15I, the F-16I has CFTs to extend its radius of action. The F-16Is exact combat radius is unknown, but is believed to be in the 1500-2100 km range with CFTs and external fuel tanks.
Given the Israeli decision to forgo additional F-15I procurement in favor of increased F-16I procurement, its range is presumably not significantly less than the F-15I. It is equipped with the same targeting systems as the F-15I and could deliver two 2000-lb bombs while carrying external fuel tanks.
A strike package of 25 each of F-15Is and F-16Is, then the Iranian air defense would have to impose significant attrition to cause the mission to fail.
Perhaps best described as fiesty - yet spineless current Iranian air defense capabilities appears non-trivial but certainly not incredibly potent.
It is comprised of three elements: aircraft, SAMs, and anti-aircraft artillery
If even one F-15I failed to complete the mission due to reliability problems, then the Iranians would only have to down one aircraft. If two failed to function, then the mission would fail to deliver ordnance without the Iranians even firing a shot.
Sorteeing a 100 attack aircraft is more than make believe - it is significant signals that Little Satan is planning more than setting the region ablaze by dissing sovereign airspace and blitzing nukey stuff.
A rising hegemon having all her Air Defense capabilities and strategic conventional stand off weapons platforms annihilated could involve way more moves than Little Satan's raid.
American Stealth bombers could target Iran’s air defense and anti-ship missile sites scattered around the Gulf, followed by what military analysts call an "Effects Based Operation," as a naval blockade of the Straits of Hormuz backed by anti-missile Aegis class cruisers and destroyers, together with a guarantee of free passage for all non-Iranian oil shipping (thus reassuring the world that energy supplies will continue to flow) may be easily and simultaneously launched.
Special Ops and airborne forces would seize Iran’s main oil pumping station at Kargh Island and capture or neutralize its offshore oil facilities.
Air Force and Navy war jets could take out Iran’s extremely vulnerable military and economic infrastructure, including its electrical grid, transportation links, gasoline refineries, port facilities, as well as air strikes against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
The air strike would target the headquarters of the IRGC's elite Qods force. With an estimated strength of up to 90,000 fighters, the Qods' stated mission is to spread Iran's revolution of 1979 throughout the region. Few tears would be shed by anyone if al Qods magically disappeared.
Truth is that the Iranian regime is uniquely vulnerable to this kind of campaign. 90% of Iran’s oil production and facilities are sweetly lying in or near the Gulf, and are shamelessly exposed to naval or air attacks.
With the exception of three Russian built Kilo-class subs (which would have to be killed in the opening days of the campaign - natch), the Iranian navy is tiny and actually quite pitiful.
Since Iran imports nearly 40% of its gasoline, an air campaign that destroys its refineries and gas supplies would leave the mullahs, the regime and its trucks, tanks, and planes starved for fuel in two weeks or even sooner.
Art by EdDiE at atomicpanda.com