Thursday, August 30, 2007

GCC Consensus

Remember the 'consensus' on man-made global warming? The study that found the consensus used search terms from papers published between '93 and '03. Since it was old, the study has been redone (using the same methodology):
Michael Asher
August 29, 2007 11:07 AM
In 2004, history professor Naomi Oreskes performed a survey of research papers on climate change. Examining peer-reviewed papers published on the ISI Web of Science database from 1993 to 2003, she found a majority supported the "consensus view," defined as humans were having at least some effect on global climate change. Oreskes' work has been repeatedly cited, but as some of its data is now nearly 15 years old, its conclusions are becoming somewhat dated.

Medical researcher Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte recently updated this research. Using the same database and search terms as Oreskes, he examined all papers published from 2004 to February 2007. The results have been submitted to the journal Energy and Environment, of which DailyTech has obtained a pre-publication copy. The figures are surprising.

Of 528 total papers on climate change, only 38 (7%) gave an explicit endorsement of the consensus. If one considers "implicit" endorsement (accepting the consensus without explicit statement), the figure rises to 45%. However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis. This is no "consensus."

The figures are even more shocking when one remembers the watered-down definition of consensus here. Not only does it not require supporting that man is the "primary" cause of warming, but it doesn't require any belief or support for "catastrophic" global warming. In fact of all papers published in this period (2004 to February 2007), only a single one makes any reference to climate change leading to catastrophic results.
As you can see, the papers being written don't seem to add up to a 'consensus' any longer. Not that this will make a difference to those already a part of the GCC church, but it is a start.

I don't expect the James' of the world to change their minds on it, but a little opening of the mind couldn't hurt.


Lord Nazh said...

Lots of changes here. The comments that were on here are now gone (saved for posterity, but otherwise unaccessible).

Feel free to make new ones :)

Simon Dyda said...

Nevertheless, a lack of consensus is no excuse for any government to ignore green issues and take them very seriously.

Lord Nazh said...

Lack of a consensus seems to be a great reason not to arbitrarily sink the economy of any given country.


 Recently played a few games on Caldera (warzone) and then... Lots of luck in this one, but satisfying